Forecasting Medium and Heavy Duty EV Adoption in California

Challenge

The California Electric Transportation Coalition (CalETC) is an industry group comprised of charging infrastructure providers, medium and heavy duty automakers, and all major California electric utilities (including Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas & Electric, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, the Northern California Power Agency, and the Southern California Public Power Authority). The group sought to forecast the adoption of medium and heavy duty electric vehicles in California, including on-road and off-road vehicles. CalETC was also interested in understanding the associated charging infrastructure needs to support EV adoption. 

Solution

To meet the client’s need, Guidehouse began by creating 13 EV segments ranging from trucks and transit buses to transport refrigeration units and forklifts. Next, the team developed a 2020-2050 EV adoption forecast for California, at the census-tract level, leveraging Guidehouse’s Vehicle Analytics & Simulation Tool (VAST™). They then assessed the associated EV charging needs, along with typical site configurations, forecasting port count, and rated kilowatts for each vehicle segment, charging level (Level 2, DCFC), and site size (small, medium, large).

Impact 

CalETC used Guidehouse’s forecasting output for internal utility planning purposes, regulatory discussions with the California Air Resources Board, and other public agencies, in addition to outreach to local government, environmental NGOs, and other stakeholders.

The full report can be found here, and a white paper summary for policymakers can be found here.