Electric bus and truck technologies have been scaling in China for the last decade, with sales in the tens of thousands and the thousands, respectively. Outside of China, though, volumes remain slim.
In an article for Automotive World, Scott Shepard, principal research analyst with Guidehouse Insights, says 2021 looks to be the year the rest of the world moves beyond pilots and demonstration projects and begins catching up with China.
“The steady growth of passenger car and crossover electric vehicles (EVs) has sparked significant investments in battery and charging technologies, which enable EVs to enter heavy vehicle markets,” Shepard said. “Transit fleets across the globe are well on their way toward electrification, and other heavy vehicle fleets providing city services such as refuse are not far behind.”
Guidehouse Insights forecasts a global fleet of heavy electrics over 5 million strong by 2030, requiring the installation of nearly 4.6 million dedicated charge points at fleet depots, bus stops, and retail charging sites.
Shepard said the increased adoption is expected to have a significant impact on both the mobility and electric power sectors, driving additional investments in generation, storage, and power management technologies that can decrease the size of the grid capacity upgrade, improve power reliability, and keep electricity costs low—or at least predictable.
“As grids evolve to incorporate generation and storage assets from the customer side of the meter into grid management services, these assets could also collect revenue, decreasing net costs,” he said.
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