Projecting Lost Revenue

COVID-19 Responses for States, Counties, Cities, and Mobility Agencies.

Generating accurate projections of public entities’ revenue loss is essential to funding the recovery. Accessing available relief funds requires loss estimates driven by customized approaches, blending economic modeling, operations analysis, policy experience, and common sense.

We, as a society, are in the throes of a global pandemic unlike any disaster in our lifetimes. Stay-at-home orders and social-distancing measures to reduce the rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus are having complex and far-reaching economic impacts.

Underlying all of this is widespread uncertainty. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, is designed to infuse states, businesses, and residents with a $2 trillion lifeline. But its implementation remains in flux, with as-yet- undetermined additional stimulus expected, and uncertain timelines and pathways for lifting social distancing.

Governments, agencies, and quasi-public entities are facing catastrophic revenue losses, as well as new costs for combating the virus. They need defensible estimates of lost revenue and new costs, both to make effective claims to programs and agencies within CARES, as well as to prepare for and advocate for additional funds.

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