From breakdown to breakthrough: Making heat pumps the easy choice

It’s 2:00 a.m. on a frigid February night in New England. Jane wakes up to find that her oil furnace, a hulking tank in the basement that has heated her home for 25 years, has just conked out. Jane calls a contractor, who is at her door by noon. The diagnosis: a cracked heat exchanger. The quickest fix? Install a new oil furnace. Jane asks about switching to a heat pump, as her neighbor did recently, but the contractor hesitates. “Those are great,” he says, “but it’ll take time to get one and I’m not sure how well it’ll heat in this cold. I can have a new furnace in by tonight.”  

Mindful of the sub-zero temperatures forecast for the coming week, Jane chooses a like-for-like replacement. By the next evening, her home is warm again, heated by another fossil-fueled system that could last until 2046, locking in another 20 years of greenhouse gas emissions.  

Scenarios like Jane’s play out in real life thousands of times each winter across the country. Each one is a missed opportunity to transition to a potentially transformative clean heating solution. Unlike furnaces that burn natural gas, oil, or propane, heat pumps produce heat using highly efficient refrigeration technology, delivering two to four times more heat energy than the electricity they consume. For many households, especially those previously relying on oil or propane, that efficiency translates into lower energy bills, quieter operation, more consistent comfort, and reduced health and safety risks. Heat pumps also provide efficient cooling during summer months. At scale, widespread heat pump adoption can meaningfully reduce energy use and emissions, making them a cornerstone of a cleaner energy future.  

The problem isn’t that homeowners like Jane aren’t interested in all those benefits; it’s that, in the moment of decision, the deck is stacked in favor of the most familiar and immediate fix. For policymakers, state and local agencies, and utilities who support the transition to a cleaner future, a key question is: How do we make the heat pump the default choice in these moments of truth?  

Answering that question requires understanding the market conditions that shape Jane’s decision and millions like it. State leaders need to ask: What are the most common obstacles to making heat pumps the no-brainer option? And what concrete steps can be taken to surmount those hurdles? 

Breaking entrenched mindsets 

When we zoom out from Jane’s story, the underlying issue becomes clear: In heating emergencies, most households default to a like-for-like replacement because the current market is structured around long-established mindsets that favor the status quo. Below are the four most commonplace ones, as well as suggestions for how states, program administrators, and industry partners can overcome them. 

1. “Heat pumps? We don’t have any in stock.” 
When Jane’s furnace failed, the contractor had a replacement furnace on hand because the supply chain is built around gas and oil systems. For heat pumps to be an easy and economical choice, distributors and contractors need inventory ready and waiting.  

The solution: Supply chain engagement 
Midstream and upstream programs, typically run by states and utilities, can incentivize manufacturers, wholesalers, and distributors to stock heat pumps locally and year-round. In the Northeast, these efforts have even prompted some distributors to dedicate entire warehouses to heat pump inventory. Evaluations show that when midstream incentives are introduced, heat pump market share can rise significantly. Supporting the supply chain ensures that homeowners get a real choice, including a heat pump that’s in stock, competitively priced, and ready for same-day installation. 

2. “I’ve never installed one of those in an old house.” 
Even with inventory available, contractors need training and support to recommend and install heat pumps, especially in older homes or during no-heat emergencies. Many contractors stick to what they know best, typically gas and oil systems.  

The solution: Contractor upskilling 
Contractors need hands‑on training and technical support, including right‑sizing equipment, installing controls for optimal performance, and applying installation best‑practices. A Northwest heat pump market study found that as contractors gained hands-on training with new cold-climate systems, they became more familiar with the products and trusted their reliability more. States should invest in their workforce through certifications, trainings, peer learning, and real-time technical support so that contractors have the skills and confidence to install heat pumps correctly and recommend them without hesitation.  

3. “I heard that heat pumps can’t handle serious cold snaps.” 
In a no-heat emergency, homeowners rely on the perceptions and advice most readily at hand. Heat pump awareness is growing, but myths persist. Among the most stubborn is the false notion that heat pumps underperform conventional heating systems in extreme cold. 

The solution: Busting myths and building trust 
Maine has shifted public opinion by showcasing more than 100,000 installations and sharing real-world success stories. After a severe cold snap in February 2023, Efficiency Maine asked heat pump owners how their systems performed. Their responses were unambiguous: Yes, heat pumps kept their homes warm, a message Efficiency Maine highlighted in a one-page flyer supported by testimonials from homeowners who stayed comfortable in minus-20°F to minus-49°F windchills. Field research conducted by Guidehouse in Connecticut and Massachusetts also showed heat pumps maintaining comfort even during deep freezes. These stories are critical to dispelling the misconception that heat pumps can’t handle cold winters.  

4. “I don’t think I can afford it.”  
Even if homeowners are convinced that a heat pump can keep their house warm, cost can still be a major barrier. Heat pumps typically have a higher upfront cost, often driven by the electrical panel upgrades required to handle the increased load. For many households, that added expense —combined with concerns about electricity consumption at a time when rates have been climbing —can be a deal-breaker.  

The solution: Incentives and better communication about long-term savings 
State agencies and utility program administrators are responding by offering no-cost replacements for low- to-moderate-income households, or piloting on-bill financing. While high electricity prices remain a concern, heat pumps can significantly reduce energy burden (the average annual cost of energy bills relative to annual income) for low-income households, especially when replacing inefficient electric-resistance, oil, or propane systems. Heat pumps offer even more bill savings when paired with weatherization upgrades. The Home Energy Rebate programs funded by the Inflation Reduction Act in Georgia, Colorado, and Washington offer a strong example of how to educate homeowners effectively. In these states, community organizations play a central role in raising awareness about the programs, while participating contractors are equipped with robust bill impact calculators that help homeowners understand their upfront and long-term energy costs.  

A new normal: Building the heat pump ecosystem 

Coming back to Jane’s late-night dilemma: What if she found herself in that chilly situation again, but in a near future where those stubborn misconceptions are no longer obstacles? 

In this future scenario, the contractor shows up not just with a replacement-furnace brochure, but also with a “clean heat package” that includes incentives to reduce a heat pump’s upfront cost, as well as estimates of long-term energy savings compared with oil heating. Before Jane can even ask, the contractor says, “We’ve got the unit in stock.” That’s because expanded distributor participation has eased supply chain issues. He says the installation will take a little longer than it does for a furnace, but he’ll set up a portable heater to keep the house warm while he’s working, and the heat pump will be up and running by that evening.  

Jane opts for the package, and is so happy with it that she tells friends and neighbors about it. Before long, many of them have heat pumps too, and over time the contractor notices something: Now, when he responds to no-heat emergencies, the path of least resistance for most customers is no longer like-for-like replacement. It’s a heat pump. 

That future is not as far off as it may seem. Concerted efforts from policymakers, state and local agencies, utilities and other stakeholders are already starting to make it a reality in several tangible ways: 

• Policy pushes and programs are aligning. Ratepayer-funded heating electrification efforts (incentives, on-bill financing, and low-cost financing) are now supported by state climate funds, Inflation Reduction Act programs, and regional initiatives like the New England Heat Pump Accelerator. Together, these resources are directing funding to break down the barriers described above. They’re doing that by strengthening incentives, expanding contractor training, supporting consumer education, and providing additional low-income assistance—all moves that reinforce the market shift already underway. 
• The industry is responding. Major HVAC distributors are partnering more actively in programs, and contractors are joining heat pump installer networks in record numbers. Manufacturers like Mitsubishi Electric Trane and LG are opening up new training centers to meet the increased demand. These shifts reflect a growing commitment across the industry to make heat pumps easier to stock, install, and promote, strengthening the ecosystem needed for widespread adoption. 
• Using evaluations to drive continuous improvement. Evaluation and market research are a key part of many of these initiatives, enabling programs to adapt quickly. By tracking metrics like the share of emergency replacements converted to heat pumps, customer satisfaction trends, and heat pump sales growth, program administrators can course-correct in real time. This creates a continuous-improvement loop in which evaluation insights directly inform adjustments to program design.  
  
• Success breeds success. Early gains in leading states are creating a roadmap for others. Vermont showed that heat pumps can scale even in the coldest climates, becoming New England’s per-capita leader in installations. Maine went further, surpassing 100,000 installations ahead of schedule and raising its target to 175,000 by 2027, a milestone state officials say is “setting an example for the nation”. These visible wins give new programs proof that strong messaging, contractor training, and supply-chain coordination can rapidly shift homeowner behavior.
• Incentives and mandates are moving the needle. In Massachusetts, only heat pumps receive incentives, effectively requiring contractors to include a heat-pump quote when equipment fails. California’s building code now includes “heat-pump-ready” requirements such as dedicated circuits and panel space, making future heat-pump installations simpler and cheaper for homeowners. These ideas, once on the fringe, are entering the mainstream. For policymakers, state agencies, and program administrators, the takeaway is clear: Focus not just on individual rebates, but on the full ecosystem that makes a heat pump the easiest, most affordable option. 

This market transformation won’t happen overnight, but the vision of heat pumps becoming the standard choice for heating is increasingly within reach. For homeowners like Jane, transforming the heat pump market can help ensure that the next time winter brings an unwelcome surprise, the solution that keeps them warm, and ultimately saves them money, will be the same solution that helps secure a cleaner future for everyone.