Energy Efficiency Potential Forecast

Challenge

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) needed a statewide energy efficiency forecast to inform multiple policy and planning activities, including utility goal setting, demand forecasting, procurement planning, scenario assessment of new policies, and energy efficiency strategic planning.

Solution

To provide the forecast, Guidehouse experts leveraged a rigorous DSMSim^TM model that they had built, maintained, and updated in the Analytica software platform since 2011. The model was further customized to forecast the adoption of over 250 technologies across six sectors, four utility service territories, 16 climate zones, and more than 50 building types. 

Model inputs relied on secondary data collection supplemented with engineering analysis and expert assumptions to fill data gaps. Guidehouse also worked with a variety of stakeholders to vet the direction, methodology, and key assumptions to for the model. The model is currently in its fifth update and is regularly refined to incorporate incremental changes to policy, scenarios, and technologies.

Impact

Guidehouse’s 10-year detailed forecast for energy efficiency in California was used by the CPUC to set utility program targets under the Rolling Portfolio Cycle and by the California Energy Commission to inform statewide energy demand forecasting. The California ISO also used it for reliability planning and load forecasting. For more information, view the draft CPUC potential study report.