In a new Gas for Climate study, Guidehouse describes potential gas decarbonization pathways until 2050. The study suggests introducing a binding mandate for 10% of all gas in Europe to come from renewable sources by 2030.
While views on the preference of supply over end-use targets differ, Daan Peters, director at Guidehouse, explained in an interview with Euractiv why he believes a well-timed scale-up of green and blue hydrogen will be essential to reaching EU climate goals.
“We expect that green hydrogen will ultimately be cheaper and the dominant form of hydrogen,” Peters told Euractiv, saying “two-thirds of EU hydrogen consumption would be green hydrogen” by 2050.
“Yet a full-scale acceleration of green hydrogen already during the 2020s would be suboptimal,” he warned, because additional renewable power will be needed to satisfy growing demand for electricity. By diverting too much renewable power from direct electricity too soon, “a too early large scale-up [could] even lead to a net increase in emissions,” added Peters.
In the meantime, the EU market would be supplied with “grey” hydrogen coming from natural gas, part of which could be made carbon-free using CO2 capture and storage technology – so-called “blue” hydrogen.
“Blue hydrogen is much cheaper than green hydrogen today, but we expect that by 2040, green hydrogen becomes cheaper,” Peters said.